A Bad Time for State’s Manufacturers?
After reading, “A bad time for state’s manufacturers” in the Star Tribune a few weeks ago, I was reminded of the old adage, what are you going to believe, your own eyes, or what others tell you?
The story was instigated by a survey of Midwestern supply managers conducted by Creighton University that found Minnesota managers “set a new record” for pessimism, according to Ernie Goss the professor who oversaw the survey.
To support Goss’ claim, the Strib rehashed the long-reported litany of job cuts among some of the state’s biggest manufacturers — the Ford plant, Anderson Windows, Medtronic, 3M and Boston Scientific.
I’m not blaming the Strib. The newspaper had its findings and reported them. That said, I would hardly have reached the same conclusion as the headline writer.
I invest a lot of time traveling throughout Minnesota, meeting with executives and managers of manufacturing companies. I can’t say that I’ve met a single person who would say that it’s a bad time for Minnesota’s manufacturing.
No where among them do I observe hand wringing or hear gloom-and-doom worries about the ravages of a potential recession. Not once. Not ever.
We all acknowledge the economy is experiencing a downturn, one of the facts of life in the modern economy’s business cycle. Yes, the mortgage crisis has hurt credit markets. And yes, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that fourth quarter GDP growth was less than 1 percent and could well be revised downward. Manufacturers know that. They also have their eyes on volatile energy costs, explosive healthcare costs and taxes. Who wouldn’t?
But my experience is that Minnesota’s manufacturers are far more focused on growing their way into opportunities than worrying about things they can’t control.
If they are worried, it is over finding and keeping future workers who will be able to sustain future growth. They are focused on ways to grow out of a slowing economy and position themselves to do even better when the cycle returns to robust growth.
The Manufacturing Business Conditions Survey, produced by Minnesota’s Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED), more closely mirrors my experience. Drawing on a random sample of Minnesota’s 9,000-plus manufacturers, it found that respondents were “confident” about 2008.
Their sample reported that manufacturers experienced steady growth in 2006 and 2007 and expected similar growth in 2008. The DEED study found, “Manufacturers are optimistic that the year will yield solid growth.”
In addition, fully 94 percent foresee exports growing or remaining stable and profits are expected to increase.
This is hardly a bad time for manufacturers.
Bob Kill
President and CEO
Minnesota Technology, Inc.
bkill@mntech.org