Brave new World
These five new emerging technologies promise to fundamentally change the way you do business. Are you ready to innovate?
BY WILLIAM GURSTELLE
Innovation is the hottest topic in American business right now. That’s not just an opinion. It’s a statistical fact, according to a study released in July by the venerable Boston Consulting Group (BCG), which produces a far-reaching study on innovation each year. In the 2005 edition of the study, BCG reported that 19 percent of the senior executives it surveyed reported that innovation was their highest strategic priority. In the 2006 survey, that proportion jumped to more than 40 percent. In short, American industry sees the writing on the wall.
James Andrew, the head of BCG’s Innovation Practice and author of the study, says that the emphasis on innovation results from the recognition that companies can only really succeed by growing faster than their competitors. “In the last year, companies have woken up to the importance of growth,” he explains. “All businesses and industries must grow by a certain amount. And attaining that level of day-to-day increases merely allows executives to keep their jobs. But it’s going beyond that level of expected growth, into innovative growth, that puts you above your competitors.”
Since innovation is such an important topic, a precise definition is critical. A common complaint these days is that the word has evolved into a dreaded business buzzword, and as such, has lost some of its meaning. Look up “innovation” in the Merriam-Webster dictionary and the entry reads, “a new idea, method or device.” Type “definition of innovation” into the Google search bar and more than 1,000 Web sites are returned, each presumably containing a slightly different connotation.
Another point to consider: The terms “innovation” and “invention” are often used interchangeably. As BCG’s Andrew points out, they aren’t the same thing. innovation is not the same as invention. “Corporations are in business to make money,” he says. “Inventions can be interesting, sexy, even stunning. But until you make money, they are not innovations.”
With so many usages, denotations, and definitions, it seems “innovation” can mean just about anything, which makes it problematic to become truly innovative. Fortunately, earlier this year, the Manufacturing Extension Partnership developed a simple, straightforward definition for innovation that works quite well. This nationwide network of more than 70 not-for-profit centers (including MTI) which provides help to small and medium-sized manufacturers, defines innovation as “the process in which new market knowledge and technology are applied to create business value.”
Market- and technology-driven innovations can be big or small, twig waving or earth shaking. All innovations can be viewed as either evolutionary or disruptive. Of course, evolutionary innovations are far more common. Extending product lines, honing manufacturing processes, and making marginal improvements in current products are the innovation analogues to playing a “small ball” style of baseball. It’s an innovation strategy that focuses on teamwork and good execution: Keep the ball in the infield, and win with walks, base hits, bunts, and stolen bases.
Disruptive innovations, to continue with the baseball metaphor, are home runs: fast-acting, game-changing universals. Personal computers replaced mainframes, digital cameras all but turned film cameras into museum pieces, and CAD design software made drafting equipment obsolete. Truly disruptive technologies are rare, but when they do arise, they are far reaching with enormous implications for technology companies.
The National Council for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies is a Washington, D.C.-based policy and research organization whose mission is to improve the competitive posture of U.S.-based manufacturing. The organization compiled a list of several emerging technologies believed to have the potential to be disruptively innovative within five to 10 years. Which of these will ultimately result in cheaper, faster, and better products for Minnesota’s manufacturers?
Disruptive Technology #1: Embedded Sensors
Sensors have been around since Galileo invented the thermometer in 1593. But early in the 21st century, many technology experts predict that advances in sensor technology will significantly extend the capabilities and utility of an extremely wide range of manufactured products. Why? Largely because sensor technology is changing rapidly from externally applied sensors, such as immersion thermometers and surface-mounted strain gauges, to embedded sensors. In other words, they are becoming installed devices built permanently into the frameworks or internal structures of products. Embedded sensors encompass a wide range of capabilities, ranging from elaborate process-control monitoring to simple electronic pop-up alerts that would go the traditional turkey timer one better.
Dr. Perry Li, associate professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Minnesota, is a part of a team that developed an integrated pressure and flow sensor for use in fluid power systems. The dime-sized sensor could someday bring greater control and sophistication to a host of fluid power applications. “This [prototype sensor] could be manufactured inexpensively and embedded into a wide variety of fluid power applications,” explains Li.
“Sensor-controlled actuators could bring precise, closed-loop process control to a number of completely new areas.”
Will embedded sensors become a disruptive technology, one that moves past mere invention to moneymaking innovation? Many feel the potential is there. Applications for embedded sensors range from control of large, hydraulically powered machinery to tiny, cutting edge micromachines made from materials such as carbon nanotube-reinforced composites. Research on sensor networks is under way as well. For example, embedded sensor matrices could be placed under highways, opening a world in which cars drive themselves.
While the self-driving car is a long way off, embedded sensors are already making themselves known in the automotive world. Recently, they have been incorporated into active and environmentally aware safety systems, climate-control systems, and automatic suspension systems on automobiles. According to the National Science Foundation, the number of sensing devices per car has doubled in the past few years, and the automotive sensor adoption curve is steepening.
Disruptive Technology #2: Micro- and Nano-manufacturing
In 1959, legendary scientist Richard Feynman said, “The principles of physics, as far as I can see, do not speak against the possibility of maneuvering things atom by atom.”
The MIT scientist proved to be prescient: Promising research is under way to develop manufacturing processes so small that they operate on the level of molecules. Although development of micro- and nano-manufacturing remains in its infancy, the expectations for it are high. Concepts such as micromachine design, nanomodeling, and molecule-level manufacturing represent a promising future approach to turning raw materials into precision finished products. Nano- and micro-technologies have the potential to dramatically disrupt entire industries and make enterprises far more agile across every industrial sector.
The term “nanotechnology” is often used rather loosely and may simply refer to any technology in which the focus of activity takes place on an infinitesimally small scale. But some subsets of the discipline are quite specific. Molecular manufacturing, for example, refers to the production of complex structures via nonbiological “mechanosynthesis.” Simply put, this is the mechanical control of myriad tiny reactions so as to build complex structures. If and when this feat is accomplished, molecular manufacturing may be the most disruptive innovation to ever affect supply chains. That’s because when manufacturers go directly from raw chemicals to a finished, atomically precise product in one step, there is no supply chain. And it’s hard to envision a technology more disruptive than that.
Disruptive Technology #3: Modeling and Simulation
Instead of building expensive and hard-to-change prototypes, high-speed computers allow engineers to build virtual representations of parts, processes, and systems, and to simulate their interaction with one another under many conditions. While digital modeling is not new, the sophistication, accuracy, and low barriers to entry made possible by new software and low-cost but powerful computers portend disruption in a wide range of design and engineering disciplines. More flexible and much less expensive than physical modeling, digital models and simulation technology allow the visualization of things before they are actually created. Thus, the ability to innovate is greatly enhanced because the time and cost required to experiment with new materials are dramatically reduced. The use of simulation-enhanced design early in the manufacturing process already enables significant benefits to manufacturing companies by way of cost reductions, scheduling improvements, and risk reductions.
Caztek Inc., a St. Paul company that designs parts for the aerospace industry, frequently uses finite element analysis software to model the performance of rocket engine components, such as valves and nozzles prior to making prototypes. “We use modeling packages integrated with CAD programs, such as SolidWorks, to predict the performance of rocket engine parts before we begin fabricating,” says company president Casimir Sienkiewicz. “Modeling and simulation of parts drastically reduce lead times and costs.”
There are benefits on the manufacturing side as well as the design side. Aside from product design efficiencies, modeling and simulation innovations could also have significant impact upon manufacturing decisions. For example, factory process simulation could provide companies with the capability to virtually evaluate a subcontractor’s skills, machine capabilities, and so forth, leading to better supply chain management.
Disruptive Technology #4: Reconfigurable Tools and Systems
Reconfigurable tools and systems allow manufacturers to perform sophisticated manufacturing operations not anticipated in the original design, without requiring new tool production. In its most common conceptualization, reconfigurable tooling resembles a pin art impression toy, the kind where people press their hands into hundreds of blunt no-stick pins to create 3D art designs.
On the shop floor, such industrial versions of that item are called “discrete-die” reconfigurable tooling. Similar to the aforementioned toy, the discrete-die tool is made up of bundles of closely spaced, individual elements, usually pins. The pins can be precisely moved up or down to change the tool shape. Besides reducing the time required to obtain tools for low-run products, reconfigurable tools can also reduce the number of machine tools, and therefore the shop space needed for manufacturing.
Reconfigurable systems expand this flexibility beyond individual machine tools and apply it at a factory level. A Reconfigurable Manufacturing System is one designed using digital hardware and software at the outset to allow rapid changes in shop layout and throughput, thus accommodating rapid adjustment in product designs and volumes.
Futurists ponder even further refinements in reconfigurable tools and systems, allowing machines to work directly from product designs, correct problems “on the fly,” detect and perform maintenance adjustments, and adapt themselves to changing conditions.
Currently, the applications most suited to reconfigurable tooling and systems are short-run, high-value part manufacturing. Aerospace manufacturing is a natural fit, and reconfigurable tooling already is used to form some sheet metal parts for aircraft.
When fully developed, reconfigurable tools and systems will enable much shorter lead times, reduced lot sizes, and cheaper, more flexible manufacturing processes. These capabilities will help make mass customization a reality for many manufacturers.
Disruptive Technology #5: Rapid Manufacturing
Rapid manufacturing is sometimes called 3D printing, freeform fabrication, layered manufacturing, additive manufacturing or “growing parts.” Basically, it is a manufacturing technique in which a solid product is created by depositing powders or liquids in thin layers, and then stacking the layers into a complex part—no molds and no tooling required.
Rapid manufacturing enables the fabrication of custom objects with novel properties directly from a design held in a computer file. At its core, rapid manufacturing is a fabrication technique in which a computer digitally slices a 3D design into thin cross sections, translating the resulting two-dimensional position information into instructions used by a rapid manufacturing machine to deposit plastics or fast-setting liquids into the desired shape.
Such technology has had a large effect on the prototyping industry, and could soon disrupt traditional ways of manufacturing short-run parts.
Rapid manufacturing may be in its infancy, but at least one Minnesota company already manufacturers short-run products using the technique. Eden Prairie-based Stratasys Inc. started its RedEye RPM subsidiary as a rapid prototyping service, but found there was a market for rapidly manufacturing finished parts as well. The outfit is now the largest rapid prototyping/manufacturing service bureau in the world, according to company spokesperson Joe Hiemenz. “Eighteen percent of the Redeye division’s revenues come from rapid manufacturing jobs [as opposed to prototypes,]” he notes. “And, the number of jobs is growing.”
Knowing what potentially disruptive innovations are on the horizon is vital for forward- thinking companies. Futurists and technology prognosticators make good money trying to predict the next big thing. Determining which horse to back is what makes being an executive challenging. But, it’s a better- than-even-money bet that one or more of these ideas will have a significant impact on Minnesota’s manufacturing environment in the not-too-distant future.